The Green Sheet: Kentucky Derby 143 Graded Line

gs_derby143_graded_line

 

For a printable, PDF version of the advance graded line for Kentucky Derby 143 by The Green Sheet, click HERE.

 

In advance of Wednesday morning’s post position draw for Kentucky Derby 143 Presented by Yum! Brands (G1), I have doped out an early graded line for 2017’s Run for the Roses.

Keep in mind that this is not a morning line, these odds are a reflection of my assessment of each horses’ chances of winning the race and are listed in the order in which I believe they will finish.

I’m anticipating a quick early pace in this year’s first leg of the Triple Crown, as Battle of Midway, Irish War Cry, Always Dreaming, State of Honor and Fast and Accurate are all front-running types that figure to ensure honest early fractions in this mile and a quarter contest.

In fact, looking back at the charts of the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1) since 1997, 12 of the past 20 runnings of this race have had half-mile splits quicker than :47 change and 16 of the past 20 editions of the 10-furlong classic have seen six-furlong fractions in the sub-1:12 and change range. Furthermore, in the slowest Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1) in the last 20 years–the 2011 edition–the half-mile was clocked in :48 and change, six furlongs in 1:13 and change and the race was still won by a closer, Animal Kingdom.

Stalkers–Nyquist (2016), American Pharoah (2015) and California Chrome (2014)–have won the last three runnings of this race, while closers Orb (2013), I’ll Have Another (2012) and Animal Kingdom (2011) annexed the three editions prior to that. It’s worth noting that favorites have won four of the past five renewals of the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1).

Be sure to check the site often, as I will not only update this graded line frequently as the week progresses, but also I will have an advance analysis of Kentucky Derby 143 after Wednesday’s post position draw and will providing FREE full-card analysis and picks for every race at Churchill Downs during Derby Week and beyond.

The best of luck with your handicapping and enjoy this year’s Run for the Roses…JG

 

Header image: “Walking Ring, Greentree Stable, Saratoga,” oil on panel by Vaughn Flannery (American, 1898 – 1955)

One thought on “The Green Sheet: Kentucky Derby 143 Graded Line

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s